Independent retailers are preparing for the fallout of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to land on shelves of this country.
Industry figures called on the Government to ease other pressures and hailed the benefits of trading locally and rewarding loyalty as tough times loomed.
In April, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) reviewed its food inflation forecast in light of the war that raged throughout March before an uneasy partial ceasefire was agreed.
Prices could now be 10% higher in December 2026 than a year earlier, the body warned, while further disruption to cargo traffic or oil, gas and fertiliser facilities could make matters worse.
Monika Linton, founding owner at Brindisa, said in mid-April that the Spanish food importer had not yet seen “any indication of immediate and drastic price rises”.
While Spain had good levels of renewable energy to draw on, there was more likelihood of an impact on transport, Linton added.
“I’ve seen newsletters from other suppliers who rely on haulage for fresh produce and are seeing fuel surcharges of 8 or 9%.” Meanwhile Brindisa has already seen a switch in consumer buying behaviour.
“We are seeing a drop in sales of luxury items; people are going back to basics,” said Linton.
“[Retail] businesses are trading down because they’re nervous their customers will. So they are buying less or more affordable products.”
Linton called for Government support to help squeezed retailers.
“If some Brexit costs were reduced in realignment with Europe, that would be good,” she said. “The Government should do whatever it can to help businesses that are really challenged with the other costs it has put on them.”
Guild of Fine Food managing director John Farrand also called for the Government to ease import-export routes within Europe.
“The global disquiet reminds us that looking to our immediate trading partners is more secure, and I urge civil servants to maintain progress on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreements with the EU,” he said.
“Opening those borders as soon as possible is imperative for growth.”
Vicki Colwill, owner of Bell’s Farm Shop in Worcestershire, said the crisis affecting international shipping and production presented an opportunity for independent businesses.
“We have a lot of local suppliers so I think it’s a bit less of an issue for us,” she said of the fallout from the Middle East.
“The fertiliser [shortage] won’t hit us as we don’t use a heavy amount. There will be some unexpected price rises coming through, I’m sure, but no-one is sounding alarm bells.”
Colwill was more focused on domestic issues the Government could help with.“Minimum wage and packaging tax are bigger worries for us,” she said.
This article first appeared in the May 2026 issue of Fine Food Digest.
