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Rice, cocoa, coffee prices to surge due to extreme weather

Posted: 13 October 2026

By Greg Pitcher

Rice - Unsplash stock pic

Fears over this year’s supersized El Niño could drive up the price of food on UK shelves, a Government paper has warned.

In September, it published a summary of discussions at a roundtable chaired by Met Office chief scientist Stephen Belcher in June.

This noted that a “significant” El Niño weather pattern was likely by the end of this year, with forecasts predicting the strongest such event on record.

UK buyers could experience higher prices for rice, cocoa and coffee as a downstream consequence, the publication added.

It said this country imports about half of all its food, with some of the places this produce is grown at risk of extreme weather such as drought.

India, Thailand and Vietnam could have lower rice yields and exports, while droughts in the US and Australia could affect sales of wheat and grains.

It added that “tropical commodities” such as coffee and cocoa were “particularly vulnerable.”

Domestic food systems could also be affected by the unusual wind patterns, with the discussion noting poor harvests in the UK following the last such event three years ago.

This article first appeared in the October issue of Fine Food Digest.